Using the Methodology for the Comprehensive Assessment of Scientific and Technological Projects to Estimate Risks of their Failure
https://doi.org/10.22394/2410-132X-2021-7-1-19-38
Abstract
The article proposes approaches to assessing the risk of non-implementation of scientific and technological projects, based on the analysis of data from institutions for innovative development of information, and carried out following the requirements of a comprehensive assessment of projects’ technological readiness. One of the approaches presented allows you to build a matrix for subsequent analysis that describes the possibility of a project oving to a higher level of development, and the second is based on identifying empirical dependencies between the level of readiness of the project being executed and the risk of violating its deadlines. Examples of applying the developed approaches for practical tasks on program activities of target programs in the field of research and development in priority areas of the scientific and technological complex of Russia are given. The described models are intended for use in the governing bodies of innovative development institutions to increase the implemented support programs’ efficiency.
Keywords
About the Authors
A. V. KomarovRussian Federation
Komarov Aleksey Valerievich – Senior Researcher, Analytical Research Department
Web of Science Researcher ID: ABI-1166-2020
123557, Moscow, Presnensky Val, 19, building 1
K. A. Komarov
Russian Federation
Komarov Kirill Alekseevich - Leading Specialist of the Analytical Research Department
Web of Science Researcher ID: AAH-2512-2021
123557, Moscow, Presnensky Val, 19, building 1
K. V. Shurtakov
Russian Federation
Shurtakov Konstantin Vladimirovich - Deputy General Director for Project Management
Web of Science Researcher ID: AAG-8420-2021
123557, Moscow, Presnensky Val, 19, building 1
References
1. Air Force Instruction 90-802. Risk Management (2019) www.e-Publishing.af.mil.
2. NASA Risk Management Handbook (2011) / NASA. http://ntrs.nasa.gov.
3. Project Management in Research and Development. White Paper (2010) / EFCOG.
4. GOST R 56275-2014 (2016) Risk management. Good Practice Risk Guide for Projects / TechExpert. http://docs.cntd.ru/document/1200118641. (In Russ.)
5. GOST R ISO / IEC 31010-2011. Risk management. Risk Assessment Methods (2011) / TechExpert. http://docs.cntd.ru/document/1200090083. (In Russ.)
6. Mankins J.C. (1995) Technology readiness levels / Advanced Concepts Office of Space Access and Technology NASA. http://www.artemisinnovation.com/images/TRL_White_Paper_2004-Edited.pdf.
7. Moon T., Smith J., Cook S. (2005) Technology Readiness and Technical Risk Assessment for the Australian Defence Organisation.
8. Mankins J.C. (2009) Technology readiness and risk assessments: A new approach // Acta Astronautica. 65(9-10):1208-1215.
9. NGNP Risk Management through Assessing Technology Readiness Status (2010) // Idaho National Laboratory. Next Generation Nuclear Plant Project. Idaho Falls, Idaho 83415.
10. Petrov A.N., Komarov A.V. (2020) Assessment of the level of technological readiness of bids using the TPRL methodology // The Economics of Science. 6(1-2):88-99. (In Russ.)
11. Komarov A.V., Petrov A.N., Sartori A.V. (2018) Model of a comprehensive assessment of the technological readiness of innovative scientific and technological projects // The Economics of Science. 4(1):47-57. (In Russ.)
12. Cooper R.G., Edgett S.J. (2006) Stage-Gate and the Critical Success Factors for New Product Development / BPTrends. https://www.bptrends.com/bpt/wp-content/publicationfiles/07-06-ART-Stage-GateForProductDev-Cooper-Edgett1.pdf.
13. Sukharev A.A., Vlasenko A.O. (2019) A method of formalizing the choice of options for implementing an integrated scientific and technological project (on the example of planning the development of technologies for creating promising regional aircraft) // Drukerovskiy Vestnik. 4:126-139. (In Russ.)
14. Chuck A. (2018) Parametric Cost and Schedule Modeling for Early Technology Development / The Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory.
15. Ferguson R, Goldenson D, McCurley J., Stoddard R., Zubrow D., Anderson D. (2011) Quantifying Uncertainty in Early Lifecycle Cost Estimation (QUELCE) / Software Engineering Measurement and Analysis (SEMA) Cost Estimation Research Group.
16. USAF Cost Risk and Uncertainty Analysis Handbook (2007).
17. NASA Cost Estimating Handbook (CEH) v.4 (2007) // NASA OCFO. https://www.nasa.gov/offices/ocfo/nasa-cost-estimating-handbook-ceh.
18. El-Khoury B., Kenley C.R. (2014) An AssumptionsBased Framework for TRL-Based Cost and Schedule Models // Journal of Cost Analysis and Parametrics. 7(3):160-179.
19. Dubos G.F., Saleh J.H., Braun R. (2007) Technology Readiness Level, Schedule Risk and Slippage in Spacecraft Design: Data Analysis and Modeling // AIAA SPACE 2007 Conference & Exposition. Long Beach, California. 18-20 September 2007.
20. Garg T., Eppinger S., Joglekar N., Olechowski A. (2017) Using TRLs and System Architecture to Estimate Technology Integration Risk / 21st International Conference on Engineering Design, ICED17. 21-25 August, 2017.
21. Engel D.W., Dalto A.C., Anderson K.K., Sivaramakrishnan C., Lansing C. (2012) Development of Technology Readiness Level (TRL) Metrics and Risk Measures / OSTI. URL: https://www.osti.gov/serv-lets/purl/1067968. DOI:10.2172/1067968. 2012.
22. GOST R 50779.21-96 (1997) Statistical methods. Definition rules and methods for calculatingstatistical characteristics based on sample data. Part 1. Normal distribution / Techexpert. http://docs.cntd.ru/document/1200001380. (In Russ.)
23. Yang K. (2008) Risk Identification: Integration & Ilities (RI3) Guidebook.
24. Zhebel V.V., Komarov A.V., Komarov K.A., Shurtakov K.V. (2018) A software tool for a comprehensive assessment of the technological readiness of innovative scientific and technological projects // The Economics of Science. 4(1):58-68. (In Russ.)
Review
For citations:
Komarov A.V., Komarov K.A., Shurtakov K.V. Using the Methodology for the Comprehensive Assessment of Scientific and Technological Projects to Estimate Risks of their Failure. Economics of Science. 2021;7(1):19-38. (In Russ.) https://doi.org/10.22394/2410-132X-2021-7-1-19-38